✨Forecasting
Forecasting predicts future customer demand based on historical sales data, trends, and seasonal patterns. Accurate forecasts enable brands to order the right quantities at the right time.
Why Forecasting Matters
Generate Revenue — Inventory availability when customers want to buy. Stockouts mean lost sales to competitors.
Reduce Costs — Avoid overstocking that ties up cash and increases carrying costs.
Catch Mistakes Early — Surface anomalies before they become costly problems.
Demand Planning vs. Forecasting
Forecasting is the analytical process of predicting future demand — the numbers.
Demand Planning is the broader operational discipline that uses forecasts to make inventory decisions, coordinate with suppliers, and align cross-functional teams.
Forecasting is an input to demand planning. Moselle handles both: generating forecasts automatically and translating them into actionable replenishment and production plans.
Measuring Accuracy with MAPE
MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) measures the average percentage difference between forecasted and actual values.
< 10%
Highly accurate
10-20%
Good
20-30%
Reasonable
> 30%
Needs improvement
Moselle tracks MAPE automatically by SKU, channel, and time period.
Top-Down vs. Bottom-Up Forecasting
Top-Down
Starts with revenue goals and works backward to unit requirements.
Set revenue target → calculate each SKU's contribution → determine units needed
Best for: new brands, stable demand patterns, financial alignment
Bottom-Up
Analyzes each SKU individually and aggregates upward.
Analyze historical sales per SKU → project demand → aggregate totals
Best for: rich historical data, seasonal products, complex catalogs
Recommended Approach
Use both. Build a top-down forecast from revenue goals, generate a bottom-up forecast from SKU data, compare, and reconcile. Moselle automates this process.
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